VoIP mobile users to hit 250M by 2012

Dean Bubley from London-based consultancy, Disruptive Analysis, has put together a major research paper predicting VoIP Mobile users could grow from virtually zero in 2007 to over 250 million by the end of 2012. This is well in excess of an expected 100 million users with dual-mode VoWLAN/cellular phones.

Bubley says the push for VoIP over WiFi will come from the operators themselves: "Carriers will become increasingly attracted to VoIPo3G because it will enable them to fit more phone calls into their scarce spectrum allocations, reduce operating expenses by combining fixed and mobile core networks, and launch new services like push-to-talk and voice-integrated "mashups. "

The end-result of the push towards VoIP using 3G technologies is that by 2012, most VoIPo3G users will be using mobile carriers' own standards-based VoIP capabilities, over the new, advanced 3G+ networks. However, a significant minority of about 60 million will be using independent or Internet-based solutions--many actually operated in partnership with carriers or retailers.

In his blog, Bubley concedes 250 million is a surprisingly big number for VoIP. especially when viewed against the VoWLAN users at the same time. "I did the sums and then had to triple-check my own model. But underlying it is one absolutely fundamental point: If mobile operators roll out LTE or UMB, then VoIP is mandatory; they're all-IP networks, just as WiMAX is," counsels Bubley.

More Reports:
- Disruptive Analysis Report
- Dean Bubley's blog

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